Monday, March 15th, 2010

Rumors of a possible Crist defection to run as an independent began a few days ago.  Now, sources indicate it may be a done deal.

Two highly placed and independent sources, speaking strictly on background, tell me that Gov. Charlie Crist is preparing to leave the Republican Party and run as an independent in the race for the U.S. Senate…

Another well-placed source tells me the reason several Crist campaign staffers left recently is because, being committed Republicans, they refused to take part in an independent Senate run by Crist. That’s not confirmed by an independent second source, but it does ring true.

Now, reports from anonymous sources are sometimes wrong, so I have stopped short of reporting a Crist independent run as a verifiable fact, even though I believe my sources are accurate.

Electorally he probably does have a slightly better shot in a three-way race than against Rubio in the primary, where polls show him currently getting creamed and losing more ground everyday.  But he won’t get much Republican support, and likely will pull more Democratic voters.  In other words, Rubio still wins.

My first thought upon hearing that he might do this was similar to that of Erick Erickson at RedState.  The party establishment will try to cover their rear-ends by blaming this on conservatives, instead of putting blame where it belongs: on supporting and promoting the kind of opportunist who so can’t stand to lose a primary that he’d pack it up and leave at the first sign that he might have miscalculated.

Ultimately this confirms what conservatives have been saying about Crist. He is an opportunist snake that only came into office on Jeb Bush’s coattails, but has no real draw of his own.  We don’t want him as our Florida senator under any label, so good riddance.

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Marco Rubio, upstart challenger to Republican governor Charlie Crist, is speaking now.  The two main themes of his speech are that there is an elite class in Washington and in the media that is out of touch with the American people – he clearly includes Charlies Crist in that group – and that America is a nation of greatness.

On policy he hits all the conservative notes, calling for lower income, capital gains and corporate taxes.

“There is no greater risk to the country than the risk posed by radical Islamic terrorists.”  They attacked us not because of what we have done, but because they want to impose their radical view on as many people as they can.

One of the largest cheers he got was pledging to stand by our allies in Israel.  Even bigger was the one he got for promising to bring terrorists to justice “in front of a military tribunal in Guantanamo.”

But the majority of the speech was spent on the larger question of the choice we have between two different futures.  We can choose to be like everyone else, or we can continue to be exceptional.  He definitely tapped the “call to greatness” quality that is common in all of America’s great speeches.  There is no doubt that Marco Rubio has a strong future and is desperately needed in the Republican Party.

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Another Democrat is bowing out from the 2010 races.  Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, one of the few less liberal members of the party, has been popular in a state typically more favorable toward Republicans.  This decision is a bit surprising, as the polls have not had him behind any of his possible Republican opponents.  Without an incumbent with a lot of cash, and given the fact that Bayh was unusually popular as a Democrat in Indiana, it’s quite likely that today’s announcement has shifted the state from the leans Democrat to the leans Republican category.

The Democratic leadership cannot be happy.

Update: Mike Pence is reconsidering his decision not to run for the seat.

Update II: Pence again declines to enter the race.

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Granted, the GOP still has no power.  But the unprecedented swiftness of the Obama/Pelosi collapse, as evidenced most recently by Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts, makes recapturing the House in 2010 a real possibility.  I wonder whether or not Republicans are ready for that.

Here’s what I mean.  My question isn’t whether or not they’re ready to win, but whether they are ready to govern with principle.  My worry is that Obama’s surprisingly fast collapse, due to his unprecedented overreaching, has not given the party bureaucracy the time necessary to properly internalize the reasons for their defeat.  Obviously, I hope that concern proves to be unfounded, and that Republicans are able to recruit principled, small government conservatives to run, and win, in the next election.

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It must be hard out there for an arm of the Democratic Party that fronts as a newspaper.  The Washington Post has done everything in its power to elect Creigh Deeds in Virginia, yet he is getting his clocked cleaned.

Admittedly the Post did influence Deeds’ primary win with its endorsement.  But power over the Democratic Party, to which the Post belongs, is a far cry from having influence in a general election.  The Post became increasingly shrill while running 12 hit-piece stories over 11 days, many about a 20 year-old thesis that purveyors of identity politics used to try and paint McDonnell as a sexist.  Then it endorsed Deeds while hurling pejoratives at McDonnell.  The result? McDonnell leads by double-digits.

Not to be discouraged, the Post has moved on to other Virginia races.  In three installments over the weekend the paper endorsed various candidates.  Not surprisingly, 25 out of 29 endorsements went to Democrats.  And even when the Post did bring itself to endorse a Republican, it was always with a positive nod to the Democrat; whereas most Republicans were ridiculed and mocked hyperbolically.  It’s unlikely this desperate attempt to salvage the crumbling Democratic Party will have much success.  But is it any wonder that papers such as this just aren’t taken seriously anymore?

Correction: I must have had fast food on the mind when I first wrote this post, as I repeatedly referred to Bob McDonnell as McDonald. I regret the hunger-induced error.

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Sarah Palin announced today not only that she would not run for re-election, but also that she is resigning as governor well before the end of her first term.  Michelle Malkin has the details.

If she has designs for the presidency in 2012 then this is an odd move.  A governorship is historically the best place from which to launch a national campaign.  She might be looking to enhance her foreign policy credentials, in which case she could challenge Murkowski in 2010 for the Alaskan Senate, then aim for 2016 to run for president.  But given the number of governors versus senators ever elected as president, that would be an odd strategy indeed.

Also, her speech was terrible.  If she wants to be taken seriously on the national stage, then she will have to improve significantly.  She rambled on and bounced defensively from issue to issue. I got so bored I turned it off before she ever got around to the point, which was her resignation.

I think Sarah Palin has an important and useful role she can play in the republican party, but it shouldn’t be as their candidate for president in 2012.

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