Talking heads everywhere are telling you what yesterday’s election results mean.  Clearly you need one more source.

In some sense they mean little more than the obvious: that the states of New Jersey and Virginia sided with Republicans based on the issues in their respective states.  Certainly the corruption from top to bottom of the New Jersey Democratic Party and the tax raising ways of Corzine, along with fears that Creigh Deeds would raise taxes in Virginia, played an important part in the defeat of both.  But was there also an anti-Obama sentiment?

It’s hard to say the extent to which there was anti-Obama sentiment, if at all.  Most voters didn’t admit to casting a vote influenced by Obama in either direction, but that doesn’t mean that those who disapprove of the President weren’t more motivated than his supporters.  It’s quite likely that they were, and it’s hard not to consider that opposition to ever expanding government in Washington could have driven extra turnout from conservatives and small government independents, who went heavily for Republicans.

The economy was a key issue in every race, and the takeaway lesson for Democrats going into 2010 is that they are in trouble if it doesn’t improve.

But enough of the two party battles, what about the intra-Republican dispute in NY-23?  While RINO’s and their self-serving cheerleaders on the left will be emboldened by Hoffman’s loss, the race is hardly an indictment of conservative candidates.  Hoffman not only got 45% of the vote in a district carried by Obama in 2008, but he did it while battling both major parties with limited resources for most of the race.  Moreover, the fact that Scozzafava was still on the ballot with the Republican label may well have been the deciding factor. She received more votes than make up the gap between Hoffman and Owens, and that’s before counting the absentee ballots, many of which were mailed while she was still a viable candidate.

For the national Republican establishment, this is no vindication of their strategy.  In the end they spent almost $1 million on a candidate that endorsed the Democrat.  That is an inexcusable embarrassment.  The best lesson they can take away is: there’s a reason you hold primaries.  If there had been a Republican primary, Hoffman would have defeated the union loving, stimulus supporting, health care nationalizing Scozzafava and then had the Republican party behind him, rather than against him, in his race against Doug Owens.  The outcome likely would have been in his favor.

For conservatives, the lesson here is that third parties are not viable.  Yes, this was a rare case and it could have worked in NY-23.  But elsewhere, particularly at the national level, it’s simply a bad idea no matter what.  Conservatives have to continue working to restore the Republican Party as the home of small government voters.  For those who would stand in our way and think the “big tent” moderate Republican Party we have now is the way to go, I’ll leave you with this election night statistic:  In Virginia, 36% of voters identified themselves as Republican, while 39% said there are conservative.

Further reading: Matt Latimer on The Right and Wrong Lessons from Tuesday’s elections, and Michelle Malkin on The GOP elite’s $1 million object lesson — and the message of NY-23

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Here’s the latest on tomorrow’s elections:

McDonnell continues to lead by double-digits.

Scozzafava endorsed the Democrat, no doubt to the embarrassment of the national party boobs who spent almost $1 million on her campaign. Hoffman leads in recent polls.

Nate Silver asks (and answers) 15 questions to help illuminate the tight New Jersey race. He gives a slight edge to Christie, whose supporters are more enthusiastic. Corzine’s saving grace may be the Democrats state machine apparatus.

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Voters will be going to the polls on November 3rd.  If you haven’t been paying much attention, here’s a quick recap of what’s going on:

The Races

Virginia Governor: Easy R Pick-up

McDonnell (R) is trouncing Deeds (D), who he has previously defeated in a statewide election (Attorney General). The Washington Post pulled out all the stops on behalf of Deeds in this race, at one point penning 12 hit pieces in 11 days, but it hasn’t mattered. The White House has already preemptively thrown Deeds under the bus, blaming his impending loss on not using them enough. Ha!

New Jersey Governor: Toss Up

Corzine’s (D) favorables are bad news for an incumbent, but the race is complicated by a third party candidate in Daggett (I). Christie (R) has been outspent by Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs Chairman who pretty much bought the seat in the first place, by a factor of 3 to 1. Nevertheless, polls have the race as a dead-heat.

Of note in the race has been some Corzine digs at Christie’s weight, which prompted Christie to say that he is gonna be a “big, fat winner.”

New York District 23: Likely Conservative Pick-up (he’ll caucus with Republicans, so also an R Hold)

Most recent polls have this three-way race down to Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Republican Dede Scozzafava, a card-check and stimulus supporting liberal endorsed by DailyKOS, was appointed the Republican candidate by the local party bigwigs. There was no primary for this special election.

After running a terrible campaign (which at one point included an odd episode where the cops were called on a conservative reporter for asking her questions), and numerous prominent conservative Republicans endorsed Hoffman, recent polls have shown her falling fast. With campaign funds completely dried up, she finally threw in the towel this morning. Expect Hoffman to pick up most of her supporters.

Ballot Initiatives

Six states will have state-wide ballot initiatives up for vote on November 3rd. Some of the more interesting ones include:

Maine Question 1: A “People’s Veto” attempt to repeal an act which authorized same-sex marriage in Maine.

Maine Question 4: A TAxpayer Bill Of Rights (TABOR) initiative, question 4 would require taxpayer approval of taxing and spending efforts above a certain threshold (tied to inflation and population growth). The last TABOR attempt in Maine failed to pass.

Maine Question 5: Would allow for legal medical marijuana, and a regulated system of distribution.

Texas Proposition 11: Will prevent government, via constitutional amendment, from acquiring land for non-public use (Eminent Domain abuse).

Washington Referendum 71: A veto referendum that seeks to overturn SB 5688, a state domestic partnership law which granted all marriage rights to domestic partners.

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