Polls by the American Research Group show Rudy Guiliani in a strong position in Republican primary states ranging the ideological spectrum.

Iowa

Rudy Giuliani 29%

John McCain 24%

Newt Gingrich 19%

Chuck Hagel 7%

Mitt Romney 7%

Nevada

Rudy Giuliani 31%

John McCain 25%

Newt Gingrich 22%

Mitt Romney 4%

New Hampshire

John McCain 29%

Rudy Giuliani 25%

Newt Gingrich 14%

Mitt Romney 9%

South Carolina

John McCain 35%

Rudy Giuliani 28%

Newt Gingrich 15%

Mitt Romney 5%

There are, I think, three important points we can take from these numbers. First, Rudy is the front runner. Even though McCain is very close, he has burned too many bridges with conservatives. Rudy’s 28% in traditionally conservative South Carolina is impressive, and reinforces the previous evidence we’ve seen that the conventional wisdom is most likely wrong, conservatives are not going to run away screaming as they get to know Rudy Guiliani. Some will, but many will also see a man who ran a fiscally conservative government in a liberal state, who made strong strides in the areas of crime and education, and who is capable of leading in the war against global jihad.

Point 2: Romney is not a viable candidate. His exposure as a faux conservative, who couldn’t bring himself to be associated with Reagan or even support the Contract with America, means the end of his campaign. With McCain and Guiliani already pulling strong support, there’s no more room for preceived “moderates”. It’s conservative or bust for whoever wants to be candidate number three.

And that also brings us to point number three. Newt Gingrich. He polled a respectable third in every state, ranging in support from 14% to 22%. If no true conservative steps forward before September of 2007, Gingrich will be a force to be reckoned with in the Republican primary. Whether or not he’d have a legimate chance at the nod will depend on a number of factors wholly unpredictable at this time. But it will be good for the Republican party, and good for America, if he’s at least strong enough to be a serious contender, as he’ll have strong influence in setting the debate.

Hat tip: race42008

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