As I see it, there are two major conditions that need to be met before coalition forces can begin seriously reducing numbers in Iraq. 1) The Iraqi public needs to have faith in their government institutions and security apparatus. 2) Those security forces need to be able to do the job. A new poll suggests that, as confidence in coalition military forces wane and confidence in Iraqi government and forces increase, the time may be ripe for serious coalition troop reductions.

Seven in ten Iraqis want US-led forces to commit to withdraw within a year. . . If the US made a commitment to withdraw, a majority believes that this would strengthen the Iraqi government. Majorities believe that the withdrawal of US troops would lead to a reduction in the amount of inter-ethnic violence and improvement in the day-to-day security of Iraqis. A modest majority, including a large majority of Shia, now believes that in the near future Iraqi security forces will be strong enough to deal with their security challenges without foreign forces. There is little interest in replacing US-led forces with an international peacekeeping force.

. . .Overall, a large majority expresses confidence in the Maliki government, the Iraqi army, Iraqi interior ministry forces and the police.

In addition, Iraqi’s view Al Qaeda and other terrorists with overwhelming disapproval.

Overall 94 percent have an unfavorable view of al Qaeda, with 82 percent expressing a very unfavorable view. Of all organizations and individuals assessed in this poll, it received the most negative ratings. The Shias and Kurds show similarly intense levels of opposition, with 95 percent and 93 percent respectively saying they have very unfavorable views. The Sunnis are also quite negative, but with less intensity. Seventy-seven percent express an unfavorable view, but only 38 percent are very unfavorable. Twenty-three percent express a favorable view (5% very).

The remaining question is the readiness of Iraqi forces. Generally speaking, they’ve been accepting greater responsibilities across Iraq. If things continue I suspect we may see major reductions as early as the first half of 2007.

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